If by-election trends are anything to go by, the DA is likely to undergo a decline in the Western Cape in the 2024 provincial elections, according to independent election analyst Wayne Sussman.

The party won 51.46% of the vote in 2009, which rose to 59.38% in 2014 and dropped to 55.45% in 2019. An Ipsos poll from October 2023 put the DA’s support in the upcoming elections at only 44% and suggested there was a possibility of a coalition government in the province.

“If you look at the by-election results, you see that the DA has been losing ground in areas like George and also in parts of Cape Winelands, which includes Paarl and Malmesbury, and these are relatively high-population areas.

“There are very few by-elections in the City of Cape Town, where 60% of their voters are. If you look at that, then the DA could fall under 50%, but there is little data from the Cape Flats,” Sussman said.

Al Jama-ah and the Patriotic Alliance would have to experience significant growth to pose a challenge to the DA, but Sussman said Al Jama-ah could gain more seats in the Western Cape legislature.

“If there is a part of the country that Al Jama-ah can grow it’s more likely to be Cape Town than Johannesburg,” he said.

“Al Jama-ah should hope to attract religious conservative voters in the Muslim community, who are upset with the DA and ANC.”

He said the ANC was unlikely to generate significant growth in the province and should hedge its bets on working with smaller parties if the DA does lose its majority.

“It is going to be hard for the ANC to grow; the interesting part will be their premier candidate [who hasn’t been announced] and that could help the party. It will be interesting to see how they do among their traditional base of black Xhosa voters in the Western Cape. 

“Generally, the ANC works better with parties like Al Jama-ah and Good than they have with the EFF and PA. The ANC is more unpopular than the DA in the Western Cape, but they might grow in parts of Athlone and the City Bowl. It is unlikely for the ANC to shoot the lights out in the Western Cape,” he said.

In the 2019 elections, the ANC received 28.63% in the province, while the PA and Al Jama-ah each got under 1%.

DA confident

According to current IEC registration statistics, 3.3 million people have registered to vote in the Western Cape, with Cape Town accounting for the majority, just over two million, followed by George and Stellenbosch with just over 100,000 registered voters each. The final number of registered voters will be released on 12 March.

The DA governs 20 of the 25 municipalities in the province and while the emergence of smaller parties might cause unease, with Sussman saying the 2024 elections are likely to be more competitive than previous polls, the DA still has a strong chance of retaining the Western Cape.

DA Western Cape provincial leader Tertuis Simmers. (Photo: Aisha Abdool Karim)

DA provincial leader Tertuis Simmers said the party was not threatened by new political parties and the DA’s track record spoke for itself.

“With the lowest unemployment rate in the country, with a dedicated safety plan that is showing excellent results in crime-ridden areas, and with a R7-billion plan to end load shedding in the province, the DA-run Western Cape outperforms ANC governments, where lack of service delivery and corruption destroys the rest of South Africa. Voters want a government that works.

“The DA is the only party in the province with a proven track record of clean governance and service delivery. You have a better chance of finding work where the DA governs. Your communities are safer where the DA governs and you experience less load shedding where the DA governs. These are things voters care about, and this will determine their choice at the ballot box,” he said.

Al Jama-ah to court ANC

Al Jama-ah leader Ganief Hendricks is arranging a meeting with the ANC leadership to discuss coalitions.

“We want to take the Western Cape from the DA because they want it to be separate from the country. So we have to work together [with the ANC], like we work in Joburg so that we remove the DA.”

Al Jama-ah leader Ganief Hendricks. (Photo: Gallo Images / Ziyaad Douglas)

However, what the party will put forward during discussions is the tricky part. Hendricks believes he can broker a deal with the ANC in which governing party supporters in the province will be asked to vote for Al Jama-ah.

The party, which has only one seat in the provincial legislature, wants to increase this to at least three seats.

“People in the Western Cape will not vote for the ANC. Why don’t you tell your supporters in the Western Cape to vote for Al Jama-ah? They can have all the seats that they want, we will have one or two. It must take place before 8 March,” Hendricks said. (“All independent candidates and political parties who intend to contest the general election must submit nomination requirements by 5pm on 8 March 2024.” — IEC)

The relationship between Al Jama-ah and the ANC made headlines when the mayoralty of the City of Johannesburg twice went to Al Jama-ah members. The coalition in the city consists of the ANC, EFF, PA, Al Jama-ah, Cope and AIC. 

Al Jama-ah’s Thapelo Amad had a short stint as mayor of Joburg before he was axed. He was replaced by the party’s Kabelo Gwamanda, who has been at the helm since May 2023. 

PA eyes Western Cape

Patriotic Alliance (PA) Deputy President Kenny Kunene claims that either his party or the DA will win an outright majority in the Western Cape.

The PA was formed in 2013 but did not fare well in the 2014 and 2019 elections. However, the party has since gained momentum.

Patriotic Alliance (PA) Deputy President Kenny Kunene. (Photo: Gallo Images / Papi Morake)

“The people of the Western Cape love [PA premier candidate] Gayton McKenzie, the same that he is loved elsewhere in the country and it is a blow to the DA that he is standing.

“Polls do not get anything right for most of the time. Our strength speaks for itself in the Western Cape. There are only two scenarios in the Western Cape: the DA will come number one or we will come number one,” Kunene said.

Sussman agreed with Kunene regarding McKenzie’s potential to woo voters, but believed the PA would not make it to the number two spot.

“I expect the PA to be the third-largest party after this election in the Western Cape. I think they are a force in the elections, especially with Gayton Mckenzie being the premier candidate.

“He does come from the north of the country … but he was the mayor in Central Karoo and he is aware of all the challenges. He has the potential to throw the cat among the pigeons in the province.” 

Kunene said the party’s electoral fate would not be affected by its stance on Israel. The ANC is pro-Palestine while the PA has openly supported Israel. Kunene said this would not affect the party’s working relationship with the ANC.  

ANC ‘open to talks’

ANC Western Cape spokesperson and MPL Muhammad Sayed said they were open to working with other parties only if they were aligned with what the ANC stood for.

The ANC has said it will start coalition discussions after the election results are released.

ANC Western Cape spokesperson and MPL Muhammad Sayed. (Photo: Suné Payne, Daily Maverick)

“For us as the ANC, political alliances often depend on the evolving political landscape and the specific conditions leading up to elections. We are open to talks with anyone who supports our policies of being pro-poor and ensuring that resources are spread to the most vulnerable within the provinces before being allocated to those who have a better quality of life. 

“We have seen voters being very dissatisfied with the DA in the province (not building safer communities, failures to deliver houses, closing hospitals, unplaced learner crisis, etc) and this bodes well for us as a party, as we have championed the rights of all who live in this province and not just a specific few.

“At present, we are looking to do well and increase on the last percentage count we had in the province. We enter elections to win,” he said.

The ANC had 31.55% support in the province in 2009, which dropped to 32.89% in 2014 and 28.63% in 2019. ANC membership issues in the province have been flagged as a concern by the party.

The party could get a boost in support from its pro-Palestine stance and the government’s success in the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, which could draw more Muslim voters to the party. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: How the Israel-Hamas war is stirring up Western Cape politics

“The ANC and the government’s case at the International Court of Justice has never been about drawing Muslim voters but rather about standing for human rights. As a party and country who has firsthand experienced apartheid it is our moral duty and obligation to ensure we uphold our principles, not just at home but also on an international stage,” Sayed said. 

If the ANC intends to rattle the DA’s cage in the Western Cape, it would have to rally up all the smaller parties in a coalition, which could still not be enough to govern the province. The EFF, one of the ANC’s key coalition partners in some municipalities, won 4% in the province in 2019.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Win back the Western Cape, Ramaphosa tells newly elected ANC provincial leaders

The Good factor 

Meanwhile, Good party MP Brett Herron said the party was working hard to attract voters in the Western Cape. In 2019, it obtained 3% of the provincial vote, securing one seat in the legislature.

Good party MP Brett Herron. (Photo: Leila Dougan)

“The DA’s stronghold in the Western Cape, I think it is disintegrating. The DA is an incumbent, they have been leading the Western Cape for the last 15 years, and I think voters and residents, particularly those who have been neglected by the DA government, will be able to look back and say, ‘I have been supporting the DA and my life has not been better.’ Politically they have not delivered and it is starting to show in the votes,” he said.

Herron said the party would decide about coalitions after the elections.

“We adopted a coalition policy at our conference in November 2023, which guides us with our approach, who we will work with and who we will not work with. We expected that there could be a coalition in the Western Cape. 

“We are approaching the elections on the basis that we are independent and not aligned, so we are not a party of any grouping that is anti-anything and we will make decisions around [coalitions] after elections and guided by our policy,” he said.

The elections will be held on 29 May. DM

Additional reporting by Velani Ludidi.