In under two months, former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party has put down footprints in four provinces. It is also forming early coalitions with churches and Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) party.

Magashule was expelled from the ANC in June 2023 and formed the ACT three months later. In a statement, Magashule’s party said its collaboration with MK would mark a “departure from traditional politics towards a more inclusive, people-centric approach”.

MK hit the ground running following its launch in Soweto on December 16. The party is arguably one of the most talked about developments in the run-up to this year’s elections and has claimed it’s aiming to win a two-thirds majority. 

In a bid to woo voters, it has held campaigns in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Its existence has already given the ANC a headache, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal where Zuma is most popular, and the party has held several engagements with supporters.   

MK interim spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndlela told Daily Maverick, “Everyone knows the ANC will not survive in KwaZulu-Natal, there is no doubt about that — they must be ready to pack their bags.”

The party has its eyes on election victories in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, claiming the provinces have long been neglected. It is also hoping to make inroads in the DA-led Western Cape. 

“We are going to surprise the DA in the Western Cape; we are quite confident about this. The people of Western Cape have been neglected for far too long,” Ndlela said. 

If the party has the chance to form a coalition, it is willing to partner with “progressive parties”, not the DA or the “ANC of Ramaphosa”. 

Commenting on the party’s momentum Ndlela said, “We are humbled by it, and I guess when a movement is a movement of the people, you can expect them to organise themselves … You don’t need money to win a campaign or to buy votes like others have been doing.”

Old friends, new foes

Speaking at an MK rally in Verulam, Durban, in December, Zuma took a swipe at the ANC, which has persistently criticised the new party and its name, threatening to expose the “true nature” of the party he led for 10 years. 

“When in leadership positions, arrogance shouldn’t prevail. Instead of insults, focus on politics. If they persist, a time will come when we’ll reveal uncomfortable truths about them. There are individuals known to us, and their true nature will be exposed for all to see. Hence, they should remain silent,” Zuma said.  

Read more in Daily Maverick: ANC KZN condemns Zuma’s ‘gross ill-discipline’ for support of new party

Meanwhile, senior ANC leader and Police Minister Bheki Cele reportedly recently described Zuma as an “intellectual dwarf”.

“No one is a leader by right, you are a leader because people elect you, nobody owns the ANC. This ANC is owned by thousands of people, alive and dead. Comrades, let [Zuma] go, bury him,” Cele reportedly said.

According to IOL, the ANC in eThekwini has asked its branches to compile a list of members who have joined or have been witnessed mobilising for the MK party and also to monitor organisations including the ANC’s ally the SA National Civic Organisation (Sanco).

Zuma is the chairperson of Sanco in KZN. The formation recently reaffirmed its unconditional support for the ANC. Speaking at the party’s January 8th celebration in Mpumalanga two weeks ago, Sanco’s president, Richard Mkhungo, took a swipe at the MK leadership. 

“We will campaign and vote for the ANC and nothing else. Any move contrary to that is self-expulsion.  

“We are saying this, comrades, because there’s some new tendency by new shenanigans who are using our name to associate with ourselves as if they don’t know our originality. We are very pleased under the leadership of the ANC,” Mkhungo said.

Supporters at Jacob Zuma’s address at White City Community Hall on 5 January 2024 in Soweto, South Africa. (Photo: Gallo Images / Fani Mahuntsi)

‘Funded by members’

Contesting the elections is no easy feat, at least financially. The Electoral Commission of SA announced that political parties would need R300,000 to compete in the national election and R200,000 for all regional elections, plus R25,000 per regional election, among other fees.  

Ndlela told Daily Maverick, “What we can share with you is that these events are funded by members and patriotic South Africans who want to invite and want to speak to President Zuma and want Zuma to speak to them, and that’s truly what it is.”

On January 6, MK attracted a large crowd to its rally in the ANC stronghold of Mkhondo, Mpumalanga. The rally cost R400,000 according to News24, and was sponsored by an MK member, Vusi Motha, formally an ANC member and mayor.

Ndlela did not comment on the claim but said, “We have not funded any of [MK’s events]. It is demonstrative of people wanting to take initiative for change in their own hands.”

Read more in Daily Maverick: Fact-Check — Is Iqbal Survé the funder behind Jacob Zuma’s new political party? 

Ndlela said discussions with potential funders were under way, but often hit a snag when their support came with demands including adopting a policy that is against the nationalisation of the SA Reserve Bank.

“We are in discussions with people that want to fund us, but they want to bring their terms. This white person came through offering us about a billion, clearly trying to pull a Phala Phala on us…” 

Political analyst Ralph Mathekga said uMkhonto Wesizwe could take voters from the ANC but was unlikely to get anywhere near a majority.

“They will make an impact, but not in winning the government, but … in denting the electoral base of the ANC … This is certainly one of the reasons why the ANC is headed to a difficult election.”

New smaller parties have garnered under 7% of the national vote in their first elections and Mathekga said this was likely to be the case for MK. 

“We have never seen an opposition party coming in doing overwhelmingly well. Cope came in around 6% and later dropped; EFF came in around the same amount and went up to 10%.  

“MK, as a new entry party, you’re looking at 4%-5%. If they get that, they would have done well.”   

Another analyst, Keith Gottschalk, voiced similar sentiments.

“Zuma’s party will be competing against the ANC for ANC votes. It won’t take votes from the IFP or the DA. I doubt they will get hundreds of thousands of votes,” he said.   

Mathekga added that although the party would not overwhelm the ANC, it could dampen its election campaign.

“To have Zuma on the opposite side should be quite a concern for the ANC; it spells an uncomfortable campaign for the party.” DM