These tactics have traditionally served the ANC well, whether in 2024 with pundits predicting the governing party’s loss of majority control or dating back to defeating a series of no-confidence motions against then president Jacob Zuma.

In August 2017, ANC officials accused the opposition of an attempted coup d’état inside and outside the House when the first secret ballot was held in the umpteenth no-confidence motion against Zuma.  

“This debate is about our integrity as the governing party, public representatives and the nation which occurs in an environment [where] a democratically elected majority … is pitted against an insurrectional opposition,” said ANC Deputy Chief Whip Doris Dlakude in the debate.

A statement by the ANC in Parliament afterwards — Zuma survived — described the opposition’s no-confidence motion as a “soft coup” and said it was intended “to collapse government, deter service delivery and sow seeds of chaos in society to ultimately grab power”.

‘Onslaught’

The 2024 January 8 Statement delivered by ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa outlined an “onslaught” against the ANC and its achievements by outside “anti-transformation forces”, or the opposition, but also through internal destabilisation that persists despite years of unity talk.

“We know that there are social and political forces that are working hard to undermine the gains of freedom made over the last three decades. They want to stop the march towards a united, nonracial, nonsexist, democratic and prosperous country that truly belongs to all.

President Cyril Ramaphosa and ANC leaders at the party’s 112th anniversary cake-cutting ceremony in Mbombela, Mpumalanga. (Photo: Elmond Jiyane / GCIS)

“The anti-transformation forces are converging into pacts, while at the same time seeking to fragment the forces for change through splinter groups and small parties that will contest the ANC.”

The reference to pacts is a nod to the Multi-Party Charter, formerly known as the Moonshot Pact; the DA has long been described as anti-transformation, particularly over its opposition to employment equity and black economic empowerment legislation. But it can also be understood as a reference to ANC splinter groupings, like former secretary-general Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation, which are joining in alliance with the uMmkhonto Wesizwe party recently endorsed by Zuma.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Ramaphosa slams ‘anti-transformation’ breakaway parties contesting the ANC

“Often these start as factional conflicts within the ANC, but when the movement pushes ahead with its renewal, they mutate into opposition parties that are as opposed to the ANC as the right-wing opponents of transformation… The shared goal of all these forces is to deprive the ANC of the ability to use state power to effect change,” said Ramaphosa.

Such onslaught rhetoric echoes in arguments on activist and ANC supporters’ social media or WhatsApp posts. Calls to arms, so to speak, ask to set aside disillusionment to mobilise for the ANC one last time to avoid a shift to the opposition because this would undo the liberation struggle.

Or as Ramaphosa put it, “The onslaught against transformation should make us more determined this year to succeed in building a better life for all and to be more deliberate and resolute about the renewal of the ANC, the broad democratic forces and our society.”

The 2024 ANC motto pulls together this take on gains, onslaught and elections: “The year of united action to defend our freedom and advance a better life for all: Forward to a decisive victory.” 

Priorities of 2023

This joining of onslaught and the ANC as the defender of freedom, achievements and transformation carries extra import as little that is new is emerging on the policy front. The ANC decided to stick to the priorities of 2023. 

Alongside internal renewal, those priorities are “reconstituting” the economy for jobs and growth, infrastructure investment and improved service delivery, strengthening the fight against crime and corruption, fighting gender violence, resolving the energy crisis and working towards a better Africa and world.

Staying on message across time also signals staying on message across party and state. The 2023 State of the Nation Address (Sona) priorities — energy security, economic growth, social security and anti-poverty measures, fighting crime and corruption — are expected to remain in the 2024 Sona on 8 February, the next key electioneering platform. 

Ramaphosa will underscore his administration’s achievements. It’ll be left to ANC MPs in the subsequent Sona debate to lob sharp political barbs against the opposition as elitist, racist and populist. The comeback from the other side of the House is set to highlight, again, accounts of corruption in government and the governing party, shoddy service delivery and how bailouts for troubled state-owned enterprises drain the public purse. 

The DA, which regularly sets out these failures, is expected to hammer home that where it governs it governs best for everyone, not just insiders, while the IFP usually takes a politer approach. The EFF is set to diss everyone. 

Voters will have to negotiate those electioneering battle lines — and the politicians’ promised bells and whistles.

The ANC rhetoric of enemies and an onslaught against it traditionally has focused energy and commitment — such rhetoric is central to pulling the proverbial rabbit from the hat. It’s something the ANC is very good at, and may again be, to hold on to governance control in the 2024 poll. DM